Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Safa Baku vs Sabail

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Zamanov E.
57' Event
Aliyev N.
61' Event
Quliyev K.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Safa Baku and Sabail finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Safa Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Safa Baku
6%
Draws
90%
Sabail
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sabail haven't matched Safa Baku's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Sabail taking it.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 11%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Baku Sabail
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 14
Draws 9 8
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 1.25 2.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Sabail
2:1
Feb 12, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs Safa Baku
0:0
Oct 23, 2025 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Sabail
2:2
Nov 28, 2023 Azerbaijan Cup
Safa Baku vs Sabail
0:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Zamanov E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aliyev N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sabail Compare

Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 10 / 100
Sabail 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Baku Sabail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa Baku's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Safa Baku has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Sabail's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Sabail
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa Baku

(Home)
22 May
Zaqatala PFK
2 : 1
Safa Baku
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Cebrayil
06 May
Difai Agsu
0 : 0
Safa Baku
29 Apr
Safa Baku
0 : 0
Shimal
22 Apr
Safa Baku
3 : 0
MOIK Baku
Page 1 of 6

Sabail

(Away)
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
06 May
Zaqatala PFK
0 : 3
Sabail
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Safa Baku27169252:2157
2Mingachevir27156655:2751
3Sabail27148546:2150
4Baku Sporting271310440:2349
5Sahdag Qusar27127836:2743
6MOIK Baku27961233:4033
7Zaqatala PFK27841527:4428
8Cebrayil27731740:5624
9Shimal27551723:6120
10Difai Agsu27461728:6018
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)