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Safa vs Shabab Baalbeck - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Takaji K.
42' Event
Haider H.
43' Event
Batran I.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Safa and Shabab Baalbeck finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Safa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Safa
15%
Draws
32%
Shabab Baalbeck
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Safa come out ahead of Shabab Baalbeck on wins alone.
  • Safa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Safa have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%
Shabab Baalbeck Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Shabab Baalbeck
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.58 0.7
Goals Conceded 1 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2025 Premier League
Safa vs Shabab Baalbeck
5:0
Apr 20, 2019 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Safa
0:2
Dec 8, 2018 Premier League
Safa vs Shabab Baalbeck
2:0
Mar 10, 2018 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Safa
0:3
Dec 1, 2017 Premier League
Safa vs Shabab Baalbeck
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Compare

Top Goalscorer Takaji K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Haider H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Shabab Baalbeck Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa 95 / 100
Shabab Baalbeck 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Shabab Baalbeck

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Shabab Baalbeck conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Safa's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Safa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa

(Home)
08 Oct
Safa
2 : 1
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
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Shabab Baalbeck

(Away)
05 Jul
Al Sahel
5 : 1
Shabab Baalbeck
01 Jul
Shabab Baalbeck
0 : 3
Bourj
25 Jun
Shabab Baalbeck
1 : 0
Racing
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
3 : 0
Shabab Baalbeck
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 11 10 1 0 31:7 31
2 Safa 11 9 2 0 30:4 29
3 Al Ahed 11 9 1 1 34:11 28
4 Nejmeh SC 11 5 2 4 12:8 17
5 Al Hikma 11 4 4 3 12:11 16
6 Tadamon 11 4 2 5 13:14 14
7 Al Sahel 11 4 1 6 14:21 13
8 Racing 11 1 6 4 4:14 9
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 11 1 5 5 7:15 8
10 Bourj 11 2 1 8 7:21 7
11 Al Ghazieh 11 1 3 7 5:18 6
12 Shabab Baalbeck 11 1 2 8 4:29 5
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Losers stage)