Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Kagoshima United

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sagan Tosu play Kagoshima United in the J2/J3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sagan Tosu averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1 conceded. Kagoshima United averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Sagan Tosu won 0, Kagoshima United won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 29, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Sagan Tosu and 1.13 for Kagoshima United. This points to a Kagoshima United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Sagan Tosu

39%

Draws

30%

Kagoshima United

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Kagoshima United has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Sagan Tosu.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in J2/J3 League provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 21%

Kagoshima United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sagan Tosu	Kagoshima United
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	15	17
Draws	3	3
Losses	12	10
Goals Scored	1.88	1.25
Goals Conceded	1	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League

Kagoshima United vs Sagan Tosu

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

2:1

Feb 28, 2026 J2/J3 League

Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

Aug 3, 2025 Club Friendly

Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United

Possession: 58% - 57% Cards: 2 - 0

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sagan Tosu Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Kagoshima United Compare

Top Goalscorer Yoshio K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagan Tosu 32 / 100

Kagoshima United 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sagan Tosu Kagoshima United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAG Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sagan Tosu scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Kagoshima United let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sagan Tosu went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kagoshima United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sagan Tosu VS Kagoshima United

1.88 Goals Scored 1.25

1 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15