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Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Wildey Turf, Bridgetown
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Elva C.
(Penalty)
35' Event
Jude-Boyd A.
Assist: Caull K.
45'
Cysique M.

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League game between Saint Lucia and Guadeloupe finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Saint Lucia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Saint Lucia
15%
Draws
26%
Guadeloupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saint Lucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guadeloupe come out ahead of Saint Lucia on wins alone.
  • Saint Lucia are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Saint Lucia have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Saint Lucia Clean Sheet 10%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saint Lucia Guadeloupe
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 15 17
Draws 3 3
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.42 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia
0:1
Oct 2, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe
3:0
Oct 15, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia
2:0
Oct 13, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saint Lucia Compare

Top Goalscorer Jude-Boyd A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Phillip D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Guadeloupe Compare

Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saint Lucia 47 / 100
Guadeloupe 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saint Lucia Guadeloupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saint Lucia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saint Lucia's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Saint Lucia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Guadeloupe has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Saint Lucia VS Guadeloupe
0.63 Goals Scored 2
3.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Saint Lucia

(Home)
05 Oct
Guadeloupe
0 : 1
Saint Lucia
02 Oct
Saint Lucia
3 : 0
Guadeloupe
29 Sept
Saint Lucia
5 : 2
Bermuda
26 Sept
Barbados
2 : 0
Saint Lucia
27 Mar
Azerbaijan
6 : 1
Saint Lucia
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Guadeloupe

(Away)
05 Oct
Guadeloupe
0 : 1
Saint Lucia
02 Oct
Saint Lucia
3 : 0
Guadeloupe
28 Sept
Guadeloupe
2 : 2
Barbados
25 Sept
Bermuda
1 : 2
Guadeloupe
24 Jun
Guadeloupe
2 : 3
Guatemala
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