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Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Upper Bethlehem
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Liburd J.
34'
Blaschka J.
44'
Denis M.

AI Match Summary

United States Virgin Islands in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored United States Virgin Islands.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Saint Martin
15%
Draws
36%
United States Virgin Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saint Martin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Saint Martin lately — more wins on the board than United States Virgin Islands.
  • Model gives Saint Martin a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Saint Martin Clean Sheet 68%
United States Virgin Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saint Martin United States Virgin Islands
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 3 4
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 2.29 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.39 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
0:5
Sep 26, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands
0:2
Nov 20, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
1:2
Sep 8, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands
1:2
Nov 28, 2004 Caribbean Cup
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saint Martin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

United States Virgin Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Liburd J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saint Martin 95 / 100
United States Virgin Islands 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saint Martin United States Virgin Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saint Martin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

United States Virgin Islands let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Saint Martin found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Saint Martin went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Saint Martin VS United States Virgin Islands
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Saint Martin

(Home)
06 Oct
Saint Martin
6 : 0
Bahamas
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Bonaire
0 : 3
Saint Martin
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United States Virgin Islands

(Away)
04 Oct
Bahamas
2 : 3
United States Virgin Islands
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
29 Mar
Puerto Rico
2 : 0
United States Virgin Islands
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