Sport Picks
Match Events
37'
37'
Coppin N.
45'
45'
Yearn K.
89'
89'
Weiss M.
AI Match Summary
The National League South 2025/2026 game between Salisbury and Chesham finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chesham.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Salisbury
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chesham carry the better recent record into this one.
- Salisbury are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Salisbury Clean Sheet 19%
Chesham Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Salisbury | Chesham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 1.85 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.44 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 14, 2026 National League South
Salisbury vs Chesham
1:2
Nov 8, 2025 National League South
Chesham vs Salisbury
0:1
Feb 18, 2025 National League South
Chesham vs Salisbury
2:2
Dec 10, 2024 FA Trophy
Chesham vs Salisbury
2:3
Sep 3, 2024 National League South
Salisbury vs Chesham
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Salisbury Compare
Top Goalscorer Coppin N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Chesham Compare
Top Goalscorer Yearn K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Weiss M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Salisbury 85 / 100
Chesham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Salisbury Chesham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Salisbury Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Salisbury scored in 85% of their last 27 outings.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Chesham conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.
Solid form: Salisbury remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Salisbury VS Chesham
2.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Salisbury
(Home) 08 Aug
Salisbury
5 : 0 Hampton & Richmond
31 Jul
Salisbury
5 : 0 Havant & Waterlooville
25 Jul
Frome Town
3 : 0 Salisbury
18 Jul
Wimborne
1 : 3 Salisbury
11 Jul
Salisbury
2 : 3 Bristol Rovers
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Salisbury
5 : 0 Hampton & Richmond
31 Jul
Salisbury
5 : 0 Havant & Waterlooville
11 Jul
Salisbury
2 : 3 Bristol Rovers
18 Apr
Salisbury
2 : 1 Horsham FC
06 Apr
Salisbury
1 : 2 Weston-super-Mare
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Chesham
(Away) 08 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
3 : 0 Chesham
28 Jul
Chertsey Town
2 : 1 Chesham
21 Jul
Basingstoke
2 : 6 Chesham
25 Apr
Dover Ath.
2 : 2 Chesham
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
3 : 0 Chesham
28 Jul
Chertsey Town
2 : 1 Chesham
21 Jul
Basingstoke
2 : 6 Chesham
25 Apr
Dover Ath.
2 : 2 Chesham
11 Apr
Bath City
4 : 2 Chesham
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worthing FC | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 99:52 | 84 |
| 2 | Hornchurch | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 81:64 | 81 |
| 3 | Torquay | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 87:62 | 80 |
| 4 | Dorking Wanderers | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 78:61 | 79 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 55:48 | 79 |
| 6 | Weston-super-Mare | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 61:48 | 78 |
| 7 | Maidenhead | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 66:41 | 77 |
| 8 | Maidstone | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 72:50 | 77 |
| 9 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 73:54 | 77 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 73:62 | 73 |
| 11 | Chesham | 46 | 21 | 9 | 16 | 68:55 | 72 |
| 12 | AFC Totton | 46 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 60:79 | 66 |
| 13 | Dagenham & Red. | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 61:62 | 64 |
| 14 | Tonbridge | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 66:65 | 60 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 53:54 | 59 |
| 16 | Slough Town | 46 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 69:87 | 54 |
| 17 | Salisbury | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 50:65 | 53 |
| 18 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 56:72 | 53 |
| 19 | Farnborough | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 72:92 | 53 |
| 20 | Dover Ath. | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 60:75 | 50 |
| 21 | Bath City | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 50:77 | 43 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 53:80 | 42 |
| 23 | Enfield Town | 46 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 55:82 | 40 |
| 24 | Eastbourne Borough | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 59:90 | 36 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
