Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2009/2010

UD Aretxabaleta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Salvatierra play UD Aretxabaleta in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2009/2010. UD Aretxabaleta are favorites here. Recently, Salvatierra averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.37 conceded. UD Aretxabaleta averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.91 conceded. In past meetings, Salvatierra won 1, UD Aretxabaleta won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 8, 2010 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Salvatierra and 1.55 for UD Aretxabaleta. This points to a UD Aretxabaleta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Salvatierra

16%

Draws

66%

UD Aretxabaleta

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: UD Aretxabaleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence

Salvatierra picked up more points recently compared to UD Aretxabaleta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 1.55 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 64%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Salvatierra Clean Sheet 15%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Salvatierra	UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	1	11
Draws	4	6
Losses	25	15
Goals Scored	0.67	1.59
Goals Conceded	2.37	1.91

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Salvatierra

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Dec 27, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Salvatierra vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 46% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salvatierra 19 / 100

UD Aretxabaleta 61 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Salvatierra UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Aretxabaleta Win (2)

Secondary Pick UD Aretxabaleta & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +80%

10.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.1%

1.72

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Salvatierra attacking → ← attacking UD Aretxabaleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salvatierra scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

UD Aretxabaleta let in goals in 88% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Salvatierra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

UD Aretxabaleta lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

7 Points in last 5 39

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Sociedad B	38	21	12	5	68:23	75
2	Portugalete	38	19	12	7	65:31	69
3	Amorebieta	38	19	11	8	58:34	68
4	Elgoibar	38	19	8	11	40:29	65
5	Gernika Club	38	17	12	9	54:38	63
6	Beasain	38	18	9	11	58:35	63
7	SCD Durango	38	15	14	9	56:44	59
8	Amurrio Club	38	14	15	9	53:42	57
9	Zamudio	38	16	8	14	47:44	56
10	Baskonia	38	13	13	12	53:56	52
11	Laudio	38	12	13	13	31:31	49
12	Santurtzi	38	11	15	12	45:40	48
13	Zalla UC	38	13	8	17	38:47	47
14	Eibar B	38	12	10	16	46:57	46
15	Arenas Getxo	38	11	13	14	29:41	46
16	Leioa	38	13	6	19	45:59	45
17	Lagun Onak	38	11	10	17	33:42	43
18	UD Aretxabaleta	38	10	11	17	33:58	41
19	Retuerto Sport	38	5	11	22	31:74	26
20	Salvatierra	38	2	7	29	22:80	13