Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Salzburg vs Austria Vienna

Austria Austria

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Red Bull Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Salzburg play Austria Vienna in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Salzburg averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. Austria Vienna averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Salzburg won 4, Austria Vienna won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 22, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Salzburg and 1.31 for Austria Vienna. This points to a Salzburg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Salzburg
15%
Draws
39%
Austria Vienna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Salzburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Salzburg picked up more points recently compared to Austria Vienna.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 18%
Austria Vienna Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salzburg Austria Vienna
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.59 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna
3:1
Apr 19, 2026 Bundesliga
Austria Vienna vs Salzburg
1:3
Feb 6, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna
0:2
Oct 26, 2025 Bundesliga
Austria Vienna vs Salzburg
0:3
May 4, 2025 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salzburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Vertessen Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schuster J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Austria Vienna Compare

Top Goalscorer Ranftl R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salzburg 45 / 100
Austria Vienna 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salzburg Austria Vienna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Salzburg or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Salzburg attacking → ← attacking Austria Vienna

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salzburg scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Austria Vienna let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Salzburg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Austria Vienna lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 43
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1LASK Linz32177856:4239
2Sturm Graz32168851:3537
3Salzburg321391056:4129
4Austria Vienna321451345:5029
5Rapid Vienna321281236:4127
6Hartberg3210121040:4025