Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samambaia vs Ceilandense

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

0 - 1
FT
Ceilandense Logo

Ceilandense

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Junior Neves
90'
Schimaltz P.
90'
Schimaltz P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ceilandense in this Brasiliense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceilandense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Samambaia
20%
Draws
23%
Ceilandense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Samambaia lately — more wins on the board than Ceilandense.
  • Win probability leans Samambaia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 20%
Ceilandense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samambaia Ceilandense
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 12 4
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 21
Goals Scored 1.39 0.65
Goals Conceded 0.97 2.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandense
0:1
Mar 2, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Samambaia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samambaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Ceilandense Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior Neves
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samambaia 85 / 100
Ceilandense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samambaia Ceilandense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samambaia found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Ceilandense let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Samambaia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Ceilandense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Samambaia VS Ceilandense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.2
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 80%
25% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Samambaia

(Home)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 7

Ceilandense

(Away)
08 Mar
Ceilandense
1 : 3
Sobradinho
22 Feb
Samambaia
0 : 1
Ceilandense
16 Feb
Legiao
1 : 1
Ceilandense
12 Feb
Ceilandense
3 : 4
Paranoa
09 Feb
Brasiliense
2 : 0
Ceilandense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)