Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samambaia vs Sobradinho

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Venue Estadio Elmo Serejo Farias (Serejao), Taguatinga
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Thiago Andre
90'
Pedrinho

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Samambaia
20%
Draws
33%
Sobradinho
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Very High Confidence
  • Sobradinho carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Samambaia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Sobradinho arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Samambaia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samambaia Sobradinho
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
0:1
Mar 8, 2026 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Samambaia
0:0
Feb 22, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
3:0
Feb 12, 2025 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
1:0
Feb 21, 2021 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samambaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Sobradinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Andre
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samambaia 95 / 100
Sobradinho 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samambaia Sobradinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samambaia's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Sobradinho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Samambaia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Samambaia VS Sobradinho
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samambaia

(Home)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

Sobradinho

(Away)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gama 3
Ceilandia 2
Samambaia 0
Sobradinho 1
Final
Gama 1
Sobradinho 0