Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sambenedettese vs US Tolentino

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme, San Benedetto del Tronto
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Tassi L.

AI Match Summary

Sambenedettese in this Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sambenedettese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sambenedettese
6%
Draws
4%
US Tolentino
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sambenedettese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to US Tolentino lately — more wins on the board than Sambenedettese.
  • Sambenedettese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Sambenedettese have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Sambenedettese Clean Sheet 68%
US Tolentino Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sambenedettese US Tolentino
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 5 6
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.63 0
Goals Conceded 1.25 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Sambenedettese vs US Tolentino
1:0
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Sambenedettese
1:3
May 25, 2022 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Sambenedettese
0:1
May 11, 2022 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Sambenedettese
0:0
Dec 19, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Sambenedettese vs US Tolentino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sambenedettese Compare

Top Goalscorer Tassi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

US Tolentino Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sambenedettese 95 / 100
US Tolentino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sambenedettese US Tolentino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: US Tolentino conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sambenedettese stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Sambenedettese's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sambenedettese VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sambenedettese

(Home)
26 Apr
Vis Pesaro
2 : 3
Sambenedettese
18 Apr
Sambenedettese
2 : 1
US Pontedera
04 Apr
Sambenedettese
0 : 0
Arezzo
29 Mar
Pineto
0 : 0
Sambenedettese
20 Mar
Ternana
1 : 1
Sambenedettese
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US Tolentino

(Away)
29 Jul
Ascoli
5 : 0
US Tolentino
07 May
US Tolentino
1 : 0
Roma City
30 Apr
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 2
US Tolentino
23 Apr
US Tolentino
2 : 1
Trastevere Calcio
16 Apr
Avezzano
3 : 0
US Tolentino
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Pineto34219450:2172
2Vigor Senigallia34207752:3467
3Trastevere Calcio34188856:4162
4Fano341861045:3460
5Cynthialbalonga341313832:2352
6Matese3412111144:3847
7Sambenedettese341381339:3746
8Calcio Chieti3412101229:2746
9Porto D'Ascoli341015928:2745
10Vastogirardi3410131130:3142
11Nuova Florida341191433:4442
12Avezzano341171635:4140
13Roma City349101529:4237
14Vastese348121437:4336
15Termoli345191025:3434
16Notaresco Calcio346131523:4131
17Montegiorgio347101721:3431
18US Tolentino347101725:4131
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)