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Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Valentini F.
90' Event
Valentini F.

AI Match Summary

Sammaurese in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sammaurese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sammaurese
35%
Draws
28%
Atletico Ascoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sammaurese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atletico Ascoli lately — more wins on the board than Sammaurese.
  • Model gives Sammaurese a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 15%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sammaurese Atletico Ascoli
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 13
Draws 7 12
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 0.83 1.58
Goals Conceded 2.03 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli
2:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Sammaurese
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sammaurese Compare

Top Goalscorer Valentini F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sammaurese 35 / 100
Atletico Ascoli 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sammaurese Atletico Ascoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Atletico Ascoli has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Sammaurese scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Sammaurese has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sammaurese VS Atletico Ascoli
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sammaurese

(Home)
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Atletico Ascoli

(Away)
08 Aug
Pineto
1 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
10 May
Teramo
2 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Teramo
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)