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Samora Correia vs SB Castelo Branco Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
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Match Events

62'
Correia P.
77' Event
Sacra

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Samora Correia and SB Castelo Branco finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SB Castelo Branco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Samora Correia
15%
Draws
28%
SB Castelo Branco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samora Correia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Samora Correia haven't matched SB Castelo Branco's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Samora Correia a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Samora Correia Clean Sheet 68%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samora Correia SB Castelo Branco
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 15
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.04 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Samora Correia
1:2
Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Samora Correia vs SB Castelo Branco
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samora Correia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

SB Castelo Branco Compare

Top Goalscorer Sacra
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samora Correia 95 / 100
SB Castelo Branco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samora Correia SB Castelo Branco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samora Correia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SB Castelo Branco let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Samora Correia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: SB Castelo Branco registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Samora Correia VS SB Castelo Branco
2 Goals Scored 1
1.43 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 25%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samora Correia

(Home)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2
Samora Correia
04 Apr
Samora Correia
2 : 1
Electrico FC
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
21 Mar
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Samora Correia
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SB Castelo Branco

(Away)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)