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Samora Correia vs Vitoria Sernache Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

86' Event
dos Santos B.
(Penalty)
90'
Santos M. L.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Samora Correia and Vitoria Sernache finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Samora Correia
15%
Draws
28%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samora Correia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria Sernache carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Samora Correia taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Samora Correia Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samora Correia Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 27 36
Wins 8 19
Draws 5 10
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.04 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs Samora Correia
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Samora Correia vs Vitoria Sernache
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samora Correia 86 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samora Correia Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samora Correia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Samora Correia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Vitoria Sernache registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Samora Correia's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Vitoria Sernache let in goals in 44% of their last 36 matches.

Scoring Trends

Samora Correia VS Vitoria Sernache
3 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samora Correia

(Home)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2
Samora Correia
04 Apr
Samora Correia
2 : 1
Electrico FC
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
21 Mar
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Samora Correia
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)