Sport Picks

Brazil

Série D 2011 Estádio Governador João Castelo

Comercial PI

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sampaio Correa play Comercial PI in the Série D 2011. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sampaio Correa averaged 1.37 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Comercial PI averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Sampaio Correa won 3, Comercial PI won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 20, 2012 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Sampaio Correa and 0.94 for Comercial PI. This points to a Sampaio Correa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Sampaio Correa

23%

Draws

31%

Comercial PI

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Sampaio Correa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Sampaio Correa picked up more points recently compared to Comercial PI.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%

Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 24%

Comercial PI Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sampaio Correa	Comercial PI
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	10
Draws	13	5
Losses	7	15
Goals Scored	1.37	0.97
Goals Conceded	0.83	1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2012 Serie D

Comercial PI vs Sampaio Correa

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Jul 1, 2012 Serie D

Sampaio Correa vs Comercial PI

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 1 - 1

4:0

Sep 4, 2011 Serie D

Sampaio Correa vs Comercial PI

Possession: 50% - 52% Cards: 3 - 3

3:0

Jul 31, 2011 Serie D

Comercial PI vs Sampaio Correa

Possession: 58% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 46 / 100

Comercial PI 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sampaio Correa Comercial PI

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sampaio Correa or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21%

2.63

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sampaio Correa attacking → ← attacking Comercial PI

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Comercial PI let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Sampaio Correa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Comercial PI lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 35

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cuiaba	8	5	1	2	19:11	16
2	Penarol	8	4	2	2	9:8	14
3	Placido de Castro	8	3	3	2	16:9	12
4	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	8	2	1	5	9:14	7
5	SE Vila Aurora	8	1	3	4	7:18	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independente	8	4	2	2	12:10	14
2	Sampaio Correa	8	4	1	3	17:8	13
3	Trem	8	3	2	3	8:11	11
4	Sao Raimundo RR	8	1	5	2	9:11	8
5	Comercial PI	8	2	2	4	9:15	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Cruz de Natal	8	5	1	2	9:6	16
2	Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	10:6	15
3	Guarani de Juazeiro	8	3	2	3	7:4	11
4	Alecrim	8	3	0	5	7:12	9
5	CA Porto	8	1	2	5	6:11	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coruripe	8	5	1	2	13:11	16
2	Treze PB	8	5	0	3	14:11	15
3	Bahia de Feira	8	4	0	4	12:9	12
4	SE River Plate	8	2	2	4	10:12	8
5	Vitoria da Conquista	8	2	1	5	6:12	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tupi-MG	8	4	2	2	10:8	14
2	Anapolina	8	4	1	3	15:11	13
3	Itumbiara	8	4	1	3	13:10	13
4	Gama	8	2	3	3	8:9	9
5	Tocantinopolis	8	2	1	5	10:18	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villa Nova AC	8	5	1	2	11:6	16
2	Volta Redonda	8	4	3	1	11:3	15
3	Audax RJ	8	3	2	3	13:7	11
4	Bosque Formosa	8	2	3	3	5:12	9
5	SAO Mateus	8	0	3	5	7:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Osasco Sporting	8	4	2	2	12:8	14
2	Mirassol	8	4	2	2	6:7	14
3	CENE	8	4	1	3	15:13	13
4	Operario-PR	8	3	1	4	7:9	10
5	Ceramica AC	8	1	2	5	6:9	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SE Juventude	8	6	1	1	19:7	19
2	Cianorte	8	4	2	2	9:9	14
3	Brusque	8	3	1	4	6:11	10
4	CA Metropolitano	8	3	0	5	14:16	9
5	Cruzeiro RS	8	1	2	5	6:11	5