Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sampaio Correa vs Luminense

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Bismarck
53'
Daniel Bolt
55' Event
Matheus Moresche
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Maranhense matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Sampaio Correa
15%
Draws
26%
Luminense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sampaio Correa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sampaio Correa lately — more wins on the board than Luminense.
  • Win probability leans Sampaio Correa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Maranhense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 68%
Luminense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa Luminense
Matches Played 35 16
Wins 13 9
Draws 15 3
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 1.4 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.8 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Luminense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Luminense Compare

Top Goalscorer Bismarck
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 95 / 100
Luminense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa Luminense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sampaio Correa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (35 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Sampaio Correa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Luminense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa VS Luminense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sampaio Correa

(Home)
27 Jun
Trem
1 : 2
Sampaio Correa
21 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 2
Trem
07 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 1
Iguatu
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 May
Sampaio Correa
4 : 0
Moto Club
Page 1 of 7

Luminense

(Away)
01 Feb
Maranhao
1 : 0
Luminense
28 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 2
Luminense
25 Jan
Sampaio Correa
1 : 1
Luminense
22 Jan
Luminense
0 : 1
IAPE
18 Jan
Luminense
0 : 3
Moto Club
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moto Club 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
2 Maranhao 7 4 1 2 9:7 13
3 Sampaio Correa 7 2 5 0 13:5 11
4 IAPE 7 3 2 2 4:3 11
5 Luminense 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
6 Tuntum 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
7 Imperatriz 7 1 3 3 2:5 6
8 ITZ Sport 7 0 1 6 1:14 1
Promotion - Maranhense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense (Relegation)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 2027 (Main)