Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samtredia vs FC Gareji Sagarejo

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium, Samtredia
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Ninidze N.
Assist: Tchikaidze I.
39'
Gigashvili Z.
64'
Sub
Gagnidze O. In: Makatsaria T.
Out: Gagnidze O.

AI Match Summary

The Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 game between Samtredia and FC Gareji Sagarejo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Gareji Sagarejo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Samtredia
28%
Draws
50%
FC Gareji Sagarejo
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: FC Gareji Sagarejo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Gareji Sagarejo come out ahead of Samtredia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans FC Gareji Sagarejo's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors FC Gareji Sagarejo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Samtredia Clean Sheet 14%
FC Gareji Sagarejo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samtredia FC Gareji Sagarejo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Samtredia
3:2
Apr 18, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Samtredia vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
0:1
Jul 27, 2024 Georgian Cup
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Samtredia
5:0
Jul 10, 2024 Club Friendly
Samtredia vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
0:0
Dec 10, 2023 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Samtredia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samtredia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Gareji Sagarejo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ninidze N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samtredia 23 / 100
FC Gareji Sagarejo 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samtredia FC Gareji Sagarejo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Samtredia scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

FC Gareji Sagarejo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Samtredia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samtredia VS FC Gareji Sagarejo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Samtredia

(Home)
26 Jul
Samtredia
2 : 1
Shturmi
22 Jun
Bolnisi
3 : 2
Samtredia
17 Jun
Merani Martvili
2 : 1
Samtredia
13 Jun
Samtredia
2 : 2
Kolkheti 1913
30 May
FC Gareji Sagarejo
3 : 2
Samtredia
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FC Gareji Sagarejo

(Away)
25 Jul
Basa
0 : 2
FC Gareji Sagarejo
22 Jun
FC Gareji Sagarejo
1 : 2
Odishi 1919
17 Jun
FC Gareji Sagarejo
0 : 0
Shturmi
13 Jun
Gori
1 : 3
FC Gareji Sagarejo
30 May
FC Gareji Sagarejo
3 : 2
Samtredia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Gareji Sagarejo19116224:1239
2Telavi19105422:1535
3Merani Martvili1986523:2030
4Shturmi1969417:1427
5Dusheti1974818:2325
6Bolnisi1967625:2025
7Odishi 19191966723:2624
8Kolkheti 19131946924:2418
9Gori1937913:2416
10Samtredia19441125:3616
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027 (Main)