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San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
San Diego FC Logo

San Diego FC

2 - 3
FT
San Jose Earthquakes Logo

San Jose Earthquakes

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Tsakiris N.
Assist: Leroux B.
6'
dos Santos CJ
8' Event
Tsakiris N.
Penalty Missed
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored San Jose Earthquakes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
San Diego FC
35%
Draws
55%
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

10% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to San Jose Earthquakes lately — more wins on the board than San Diego FC.
  • Model gives San Diego FC a 10% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
San Diego FC Clean Sheet 10%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Diego FC San Jose Earthquakes
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.82
Goals Conceded 2.04 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 MLS
San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:3
Apr 5, 2026 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego FC
3:0
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 MLS
San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
0:1
Aug 17, 2025 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Diego FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dreyer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsakiris N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Judd P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Diego FC 65 / 100
San Jose Earthquakes 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Diego FC San Jose Earthquakes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Diego FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Jose Earthquakes let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

San Diego FC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: San Diego FC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

San Diego FC VS San Jose Earthquakes
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

San Diego FC

(Home)
10 Oct
New York Red Bulls
4 : 1
San Diego FC
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2
San Diego FC
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

San Jose Earthquakes

(Away)
11 Oct
Colorado Rapids
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
19 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
2 : 2
Los Angeles FC
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 28 14 8 6 54:38 50
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 29 9 9 11 39:50 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)