Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Donato Tavarnelle vs Siena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Lipari M.
29' Event
Cavallari D.
48' Event
Calonaci L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between San Donato Tavarnelle and Siena finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Siena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
San Donato Tavarnelle
40%
Draws
29%
Siena
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Siena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 11%
Siena Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Donato Tavarnelle Siena
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 12 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.63 2.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Siena
2:3
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:2
Jan 5, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2:0
Sep 8, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Siena
0:1
Mar 5, 2023 Serie C - Group B
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Siena
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Donato Tavarnelle Compare

Top Goalscorer Calonaci L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rotondo N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Siena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lipari M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cavallari D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Donato Tavarnelle 30 / 100
Siena 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Donato Tavarnelle Siena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Siena has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: San Donato Tavarnelle remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

San Donato Tavarnelle's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

San Donato Tavarnelle VS Siena
0.63 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

San Donato Tavarnelle

(Home)
03 May
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1
Seravezza Pozzi
26 Apr
Grosseto
0 : 2
San Donato Tavarnelle
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Foligno
12 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
02 Apr
Cannara
1 : 0
San Donato Tavarnelle
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Siena

(Away)
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Siena
4 : 4
Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5
Siena
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0
Montevarchi
12 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 4
Siena
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)