Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Donnino vs Aglianese Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Iacoponi S.

AI Match Summary

Aglianese Calcio in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aglianese Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
San Donnino
28%
Draws
22%
Aglianese Calcio
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: San Donnino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Aglianese Calcio have won more games recently than San Donnino.
  • Model gives San Donnino a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
San Donnino Clean Sheet 68%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Donnino Aglianese Calcio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group D
San Donnino vs Aglianese Calcio
0:1
Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs San Donnino
3:2
Feb 20, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs San Donnino
1:1
Oct 16, 2021 Serie D - Group D
San Donnino vs Aglianese Calcio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Donnino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Iacoponi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Donnino 59 / 100
Aglianese Calcio 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Donnino Aglianese Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: San Donnino stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Aglianese Calcio's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

San Donnino scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

San Donnino VS Aglianese Calcio
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Donnino

(Home)
05 May
Victor San Marino
3 : 2
San Donnino
28 Apr
San Donnino
0 : 2
Ravenna
21 Apr
Corticella
2 : 2
San Donnino
14 Apr
San Donnino
1 : 1
Sant'Angelo
07 Apr
Lentigione
2 : 3
San Donnino
Page 1 of 6

Aglianese Calcio

(Away)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Carpi32215666:3168
2Ravenna32199456:1366
3Corticella321831159:4057
4Victor San Marino32176944:3757
5Lentigione32168849:3156
6Forli FC32167948:3555
7Prato321281237:4144
8Sangiuliano City321281232:3744
9Fanfulla3211101128:3543
10Sant'Angelo321181347:4441
11Aglianese Calcio321181332:3941
12Imolese321261431:3340
13Sammaurese321141737:4837
14SCD Progresso321141727:4337
15San Donnino325101732:5825
16Certaldo32662022:5524
17Mezzolara32562123:5021
18Pistoiese00000:00
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)