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San Ignacio vs Pasaia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Arrizabalaga Agirre P.
78' Event
Ayestaran B. M.

AI Match Summary

Pasaia in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pasaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
San Ignacio
30%
Draws
47%
Pasaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • San Ignacio have won more games recently than Pasaia.
  • San Ignacio are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
San Ignacio Clean Sheet 20%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Ignacio Pasaia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.62 1
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Pasaia
1:2
Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Pasaia
0:2
Oct 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs San Ignacio
1:1
Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs San Ignacio
0:0
Nov 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Pasaia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Ignacio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrizabalaga Agirre P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ayestaran B. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Ignacio 42 / 100
Pasaia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Ignacio Pasaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Ignacio scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Pasaia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: San Ignacio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Ignacio VS Pasaia
2.5 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

San Ignacio

(Home)
04 Oct
Real Union B
0 : 3
San Ignacio
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
05 Sept
SCD Durango
3 : 3
San Ignacio
Page 1 of 6

Pasaia

(Away)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)