Sport Picks
San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS Next Pro PayPal Park, San Jose, CA 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Carli E. In: Bell M.
Out: Carli E.
64'
64'
Mendoza E.
(Penalty)
69'
69'
Gnaulati X.
AI Match Summary
The MLS Next Pro game between San Jose Earthquakes II and Tacoma Defiance finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tacoma Defiance.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes II
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tacoma Defiance come out ahead of San Jose Earthquakes II on wins alone.
- Model gives San Jose Earthquakes II a 43% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
- History favors Tacoma Defiance here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
San Jose Earthquakes II Clean Sheet 10%
Tacoma Defiance Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes II | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 15 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 15 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 MLS Next Pro
San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance
1:2
Jul 13, 2026 MLS Next Pro
San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance
0:1
Mar 15, 2026 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs San Jose Earthquakes II
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 MLS Next Pro
San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance
0:1
Jul 4, 2025 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs San Jose Earthquakes II
5:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
San Jose Earthquakes II Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Tacoma Defiance Compare
Top Goalscorer O'Neill M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
San Jose Earthquakes II 56 / 100
Tacoma Defiance 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
San Jose Earthquakes II Tacoma Defiance
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick San Jose Earthquakes II Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: San Jose Earthquakes II scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Tacoma Defiance's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
San Jose Earthquakes II went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
San Jose Earthquakes II VS Tacoma Defiance
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
San Jose Earthquakes II
(Home) 20 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps 2
0 : 2 San Jose Earthquakes II
14 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
4 : 0 Real Monarchs
10 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 3 Ventura County
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
San Jose Earthquakes II
3 : 2 Los Angeles FC 2
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
4 : 0 Real Monarchs
10 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 3 Ventura County
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
San Jose Earthquakes II
3 : 2 Los Angeles FC 2
17 Aug
San Jose Earthquakes II
0 : 2 St. Louis City 2
Page 1 of 3
Tacoma Defiance
(Away) 20 Sept
Tacoma Defiance
2 : 1 Portland Timbers 2
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
Real Monarchs
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
25 Aug
Tacoma Defiance
4 : 0 Sporting Kansas City II
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
Real Monarchs
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
17 Aug
Los Angeles FC 2
4 : 3 Tacoma Defiance
09 Aug
North Texas
3 : 1 Tacoma Defiance
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew 2 | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 49:43 | 48 |
| 2 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47:42 | 48 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 50:44 | 47 |
| 4 | CT United FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 59:52 | 46 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 58:48 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 7 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 48:56 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati 2 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 32:62 | 20 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 67:39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 56:39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62:46 | 48 |
| 4 | Huntsville City | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 5 | Orlando City B | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 55:56 | 44 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 50:48 | 39 |
| 7 | Carolina Core | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 40:53 | 31 |
| 8 | Inter Miami II | 28 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 30:74 | 15 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers 2 | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 2 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 5 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 7 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | 27 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo 2 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 3 | Minnesota United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 4 | St. Louis City 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 5 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 6 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids 2 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 67:39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 56:39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62:46 | 48 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew 2 | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 49:43 | 48 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47:42 | 48 |
| 6 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 50:44 | 47 |
| 7 | CT United FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 59:52 | 46 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 58:48 | 46 |
| 9 | Huntsville City | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 10 | Orlando City B | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 55:56 | 44 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 48:56 | 39 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 50:48 | 39 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 40:53 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati 2 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 32:62 | 20 |
| 16 | Inter Miami II | 28 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 30:74 | 15 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers 2 | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 3 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo 2 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 5 | Minnesota United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 7 | St. Louis City 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 10 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids 2 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
