Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Marino Calcio vs Fossombrone

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Gasperoni M.
78' Event
Melloni L.
90' Event
Silvestri I.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between San Marino Calcio and Fossombrone finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Marino Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
San Marino Calcio
20%
Draws
38%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Marino Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Fossombrone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives San Marino Calcio a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
San Marino Calcio Clean Sheet 17%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marino Calcio Fossombrone
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 2 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group F
San Marino Calcio vs Fossombrone
3:0
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs San Marino Calcio
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marino Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Gasperoni M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Melloni L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Fossombrone Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino Calcio 41 / 100
Fossombrone 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marino Calcio Fossombrone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino Calcio's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Fossombrone let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

San Marino Calcio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Marino Calcio VS Fossombrone
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920