Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Marino Calcio vs Vigor Senigallia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Parrinello T.
41' Event
De Feo G.
45' Event
Gasperoni M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between San Marino Calcio and Vigor Senigallia finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
San Marino Calcio
40%
Draws
29%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vigor Senigallia come out ahead of San Marino Calcio on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
San Marino Calcio Clean Sheet 10%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marino Calcio Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 7 12
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group F
San Marino Calcio vs Vigor Senigallia
1:4
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs San Marino Calcio
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marino Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Gasperoni M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Braconi L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Parrinello T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino Calcio 30 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marino Calcio Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

San Marino Calcio's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Vigor Senigallia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Solid form: San Marino Calcio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

San Marino Calcio VS Vigor Senigallia
1.38 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marino Calcio

(Home)
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1
San Marino Calcio
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2
San Marino Calcio
19 Apr
San Marino Calcio
1 : 3
Teramo
12 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 2
San Marino Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
26 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
2 : 3
Calcio Chieti
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
2 : 2
Atletico Ascoli
02 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F (Play Out)