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San Martin Burzaco vs Excursionistas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Primera B Francisco Boga Stadium, Buenos Aires
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Martin Burzaco host Excursionistas in the Primera B. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Excursionistas have shipped 0.89 goals a game lately, while San Martin Burzaco have conceded 1.11 and scored 0.89. Past meetings favor Excursionistas slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 6, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.88) point toward Excursionistas. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
San Martin Burzaco
15%
Draws
46%
Excursionistas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Excursionistas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Excursionistas come out ahead of San Martin Burzaco on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Excursionistas have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
San Martin Burzaco Clean Sheet 10%
Excursionistas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Martin Burzaco Excursionistas
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 16
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 0.89 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Primera B
Excursionistas vs San Martin Burzaco
2:0
Sep 22, 2025 Primera B
Excursionistas vs San Martin Burzaco
4:2
May 3, 2025 Primera B
San Martin Burzaco vs Excursionistas
0:1
Aug 17, 2024 Primera B
Excursionistas vs San Martin Burzaco
4:2
Mar 30, 2024 Primera B
San Martin Burzaco vs Excursionistas
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Martin Burzaco 34 / 100
Excursionistas 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Martin Burzaco Excursionistas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excursionistas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Defensive concern: Excursionistas conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

San Martin Burzaco has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

San Martin Burzaco found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

San Martin Burzaco VS Excursionistas
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Martin Burzaco

(Home)
03 Oct
San Martin Burzaco
2 : 1
Argentino de Merlo
26 Sept
Talleres Remedios Escalada
3 : 2
San Martin Burzaco
19 Sept
San Martin Burzaco
2 : 1
Laferrere
12 Sept
Brown Adrogue
0 : 2
San Martin Burzaco
05 Sept
San Martin Burzaco
0 : 0
Deportivo Armenio
Page 1 of 6

Excursionistas

(Away)
03 Oct
CSD Liniers
1 : 0
Excursionistas
25 Sept
Excursionistas
3 : 0
Real Pilar
19 Sept
UAI Urquiza
1 : 2
Excursionistas
12 Sept
Excursionistas
3 : 0
Villa Dalmine
07 Sept
Excursionistas
2 : 1
Ituzaingo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Excursionistas 38 22 8 8 59:30 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 38 19 12 7 50:25 69
3 Talleres Remedios Escalada 38 19 10 9 40:23 67
4 Sportivo Italiano 38 18 11 9 45:28 65
5 Villa Dalmine 38 17 13 8 38:23 64
6 Deportivo Camioneros 38 17 12 9 43:29 63
7 Real Pilar 38 17 10 11 42:38 61
8 Deportivo Armenio 38 17 9 12 42:38 60
9 Comunicaciones 38 14 13 11 39:34 55
10 Laferrere 38 13 12 13 46:50 51
11 San Martin Burzaco 38 12 14 12 39:41 50
12 Dock Sud 38 11 14 13 40:42 47
13 Villa San Carlos 38 11 14 13 37:39 47
14 Argentino de Merlo 38 11 11 16 33:39 44
15 Dep. Merlo 38 10 14 14 36:51 44
16 Argentino de Quilmes 38 9 16 13 30:37 43
17 CSD Liniers 38 10 13 15 31:39 43
18 Defensores Unidos 38 9 14 15 33:39 41
19 Brown Adrogue 38 8 15 15 24:37 39
20 Flandria 38 10 9 19 34:48 39
21 UAI Urquiza 38 5 20 13 21:35 35
22 Ituzaingo 38 1 12 25 25:62 15
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)