Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio La Ciudadela, Tucuman
San Martin T. Logo

San Martin T.

2 - 1
FT
Atl. Rafaela Logo

Atl. Rafaela

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Lopez K. In: Castro N.
Out: Lopez K.
10' Event
Pons F.
Assist: Juarez J.
17' Event
Moreno M.
Assist: Flores L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between San Martin T. and Atl. Rafaela finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Martin T..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
San Martin T.
20%
Draws
44%
Atl. Rafaela
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atl. Rafaela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atl. Rafaela come out ahead of San Martin T. on wins alone.
  • Model gives San Martin T. a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
San Martin T. Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Martin T. Atl. Rafaela
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 11 8
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.07 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
4:2
May 2, 2026 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
2:1
Jul 3, 2022 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
1:1
Dec 14, 2020 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
0:3
Apr 11, 2020 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Martin T. Compare

Top Goalscorer Pons F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreyra N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Martin T. 51 / 100
Atl. Rafaela 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Martin T. Atl. Rafaela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Martin T. found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

San Martin T. has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Atl. Rafaela registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Martin T. VS Atl. Rafaela
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Martin T.

(Home)
28 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 2
San Martin T.
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
San Martin T.
3 : 0
Agropecuario
05 Sept
Tristan Suarez
2 : 0
San Martin T.
30 Aug
San Martin T.
1 : 1
Club Atletico Guemes
Page 1 of 6

Atl. Rafaela

(Away)
27 Sept
Gimnasia y Tiro
1 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 1
Atl. Rafaela
06 Sept
Agropecuario
2 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
29 Aug
Atl. Rafaela
2 : 1
Tristan Suarez
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 31 18 7 6 36:25 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 49:31 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 40:28 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 44:28 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 38:25 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 23:18 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 29:26 45
8 Ciudad Bolivar 31 10 12 9 26:28 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 24:21 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 28:31 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 31 8 12 11 23:27 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 28:38 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 25:34 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 17:26 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 19:28 32
16 CA Mitre 31 6 14 11 27:39 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 25:36 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 22:34 29
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 31 15 12 4 32:15 57
2 Gimnasia Jujuy 31 15 9 7 47:38 54
3 Temperley 31 14 11 6 36:25 53
4 Atletico Atlanta 31 16 4 11 35:28 52
5 Gimnasia y Tiro 31 13 9 9 32:27 48
6 Midland 31 13 8 10 34:26 47
7 San Martin S.J. 31 12 9 10 33:30 45
8 Deportivo Maipu 31 12 8 11 38:31 44
9 Colegiales 31 12 7 12 31:31 43
10 Atl. Rafaela 31 11 9 11 25:27 42
11 San Martin T. 31 9 13 9 34:32 40
12 Quilmes 31 10 8 13 30:27 38
13 Nueva Chicago 31 9 9 13 23:29 36
14 Agropecuario 31 9 9 13 26:35 36
15 Almagro 31 9 8 14 26:37 35
16 Patronato 31 6 16 9 27:31 34
17 Chacarita Juniors 31 8 6 17 23:33 30
18 Club Atletico Guemes 31 5 8 18 23:53 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)