Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio La Ciudadela
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Lopez K. In: Castro N.
Out: Lopez K.
10' Event
Pons F.
Assist: Juarez J.
17' Event
Moreno M.
Assist: Flores L.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between San Martin T. and Atl. Rafaela finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Martin T..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
San Martin T.
39%
Draws
31%
Atl. Rafaela
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atl. Rafaela come out ahead of San Martin T. on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 9%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
San Martin T. Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 22%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Martin T. Atl. Rafaela
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 11 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.5 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
2:1
Jul 3, 2022 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
1:1
Dec 14, 2020 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
0:3
Apr 11, 2020 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs San Martin T.
0:0
Oct 20, 2019 Primera Nacional
San Martin T. vs Atl. Rafaela
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Martin T. Compare

Top Goalscorer Pons F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreyra N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Martin T. 41 / 100
Atl. Rafaela 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Martin T. Atl. Rafaela

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

San Martin T. has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: San Martin T. scored in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Atl. Rafaela has conceded goals in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Martin T. VS Atl. Rafaela
0.5 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferro20124423:1440
2Deportivo Moron20105529:1935
3Los Andes2088419:832
4Colon Santa Fe1988323:1532
5Ciudad Bolivar2079419:1630
6CA Estudiantes2086618:1630
7Almirante Brown2086615:1330
8Deportivo Madryn2078527:2229
9Godoy Cruz1967619:1725
10San Miguel20510517:2125
11Defensores de Belgrano1958614:1723
12Racing Cordoba1956817:2221
13All Boys2049713:2021
14San Telmo2048816:2120
15Central Norte1947812:1719
16Acassuso19541013:2019
17CA Mitre2039819:2718
18Chaco For Ever20371017:2616
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gimnasia Jujuy19114431:2137
2Atletico Atlanta19103624:1533
3Tristan Suarez2089317:1133
4Temperley1979319:1730
5Deportivo Maipu2084827:2128
6Midland1976620:1527
7Atl. Rafaela2076715:1627
8San Martin T.1968516:1526
9Nueva Chicago1967617:1725
10Almagro1974816:1925
11Quilmes1966718:1524
12Gimnasia y Tiro1966718:2024
13Colegiales1965818:1923
14San Martin S.J.1865718:1923
15Chacarita Juniors1964915:2022
16Patronato1949612:1621
17Club Atletico Guemes19541018:3219
18Agropecuario1946914:2418