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San Miguel vs Ibarra

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Bentos S.
8' Event
Martin B.
39' Event
Garcia D. G. G.

AI Match Summary

Ibarra in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ibarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
San Miguel
20%
Draws
36%
Ibarra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Miguel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ibarra lately — more wins on the board than San Miguel.
  • Win probability leans San Miguel's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 68%
Ibarra Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Miguel Ibarra
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 17
Draws 8 4
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Ibarra
2:4
Sep 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs San Miguel
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Miguel Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ibrahima B. P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Ibarra Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentos S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia D. G. G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Miguel 95 / 100
Ibarra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Miguel Ibarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Miguel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

San Miguel went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

San Miguel found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Ibarra has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Miguel VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

San Miguel

(Home)
19 Sept
San Miguel
3 : 1
Villa Santa Brigida
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
10 May
Las Palmas C
0 : 1
San Miguel
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
26 Apr
Telde
1 : 3
San Miguel
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Ibarra

(Away)
24 May
Tamaraceite
3 : 0
Ibarra
17 May
Ibarra
1 : 0
Tamaraceite
11 May
Ibarra
3 : 1
Tamaraceite
04 May
Las Palmas B
2 : 0
Ibarra
26 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0
Herbania
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)