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San Sebastian Reyes vs Toledo

Spain Spain

Copa Federacion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Sebastian Reyes play Toledo in the Copa Federacion. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Sebastian Reyes averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Toledo averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. In past meetings, San Sebastian Reyes won 2, Toledo won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 1, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for San Sebastian Reyes and 1.00 for Toledo. This points to a San Sebastian Reyes double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
San Sebastian Reyes
26%
Draws
35%
Toledo
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: San Sebastian Reyes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • San Sebastian Reyes picked up more points recently compared to Toledo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
San Sebastian Reyes Clean Sheet 23%
Toledo Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Sebastian Reyes Toledo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 16
Draws 9 8
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.6
Goals Conceded 0.73 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2025 Copa Federacion
San Sebastian Reyes vs Toledo
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
San Sebastian Reyes vs Toledo
1:3
Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly
Toledo vs San Sebastian Reyes
0:1
Mar 30, 2018 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Toledo vs San Sebastian Reyes
0:1
Nov 5, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
San Sebastian Reyes vs Toledo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Sebastian Reyes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubayo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Sebastian Reyes 40 / 100
Toledo 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Sebastian Reyes Toledo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: San Sebastian Reyes or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Sebastian Reyes attacking → ← attacking Toledo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Sebastian Reyes scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Toledo let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

San Sebastian Reyes went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toledo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 56
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50