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Sancataldese vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Cascio F.

AI Match Summary

Gelbison in this Serie D - Group I matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Sancataldese
20%
Draws
56%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gelbison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gelbison lately — more wins on the board than Sancataldese.
  • Win probability leans Gelbison's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sancataldese Clean Sheet 16%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sancataldese Gelbison
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Sancataldese vs Gelbison
0:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Sancataldese
1:3
May 8, 2022 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Sancataldese
4:0
Dec 19, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Sancataldese vs Gelbison
2:1
Mar 25, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Sancataldese vs Gelbison
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sancataldese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Cascio F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sancataldese 19 / 100
Gelbison 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sancataldese Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sancataldese scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Gelbison has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Sancataldese has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sancataldese VS Gelbison
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sancataldese

(Home)
03 May
A.C. Savoia
3 : 0
Sancataldese
26 Apr
Sancataldese
1 : 1
Lamezia
19 Apr
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
Sancataldese
12 Apr
Sancataldese
0 : 1
Gelbison
02 Apr
Vibonese
0 : 2
Sancataldese
Page 1 of 6

Gelbison

(Away)
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Enna
0 : 1
Gelbison
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
12 Apr
Sancataldese
0 : 1
Gelbison
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)