Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sangiovannese vs Siena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Di Paola G.
7' Event
Nieri M.
45' Event
Boccardi F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Sangiovannese and Siena finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Siena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Sangiovannese
35%
Draws
52%
Siena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Siena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Siena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Siena's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Siena have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Sangiovannese Clean Sheet 10%
Siena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sangiovannese Siena
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 17
Draws 9 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Sangiovannese vs Siena
1:2
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Sangiovannese
2:1
Apr 25, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Sangiovannese
1:0
Jan 20, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Sangiovannese vs Siena
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sangiovannese Compare

Top Goalscorer Nieri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Siena Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Paola G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boccardi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sangiovannese 22 / 100
Siena 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sangiovannese Siena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Siena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Siena conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Sangiovannese's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sangiovannese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sangiovannese VS Siena
1.5 Goals Scored 2.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Sangiovannese

(Home)
26 Aug
Sangiovannese
3 : 3
Scandicci
09 Aug
Sangiovannese
0 : 1
San Donato Tavarnelle
04 May
Sangiovannese
0 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
27 Apr
Flaminia
1 : 0
Sangiovannese
17 Apr
Sangiovannese
2 : 2
Livorno
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Siena

(Away)
16 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Siena
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Scandicci
1 : 1
Siena
23 Aug
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1
Siena
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)