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Sanjoanense vs Paredes

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Andrezinho
Assist: Talles Wander
46'
Sub
Yuk J. In: Pires J.
Out: Yuk J.
46'
Sub
Ferreira P. In: Dos Santos Guerra T. M.
Out: Ferreira P.

AI Match Summary

Sanjoanense in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sanjoanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sanjoanense
20%
Draws
48%
Paredes
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paredes lately — more wins on the board than Sanjoanense.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Sanjoanense taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 11%
Paredes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanjoanense Paredes
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.76 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:1
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
2:2
Feb 18, 2023 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanjoanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrezinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Paredes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanjoanense 35 / 100
Paredes 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanjoanense Paredes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanjoanense found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Sanjoanense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Paredes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sanjoanense VS Paredes
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanjoanense

(Home)
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Sanjoanense
3 : 0
Pacos de Brandao
23 Aug
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
16 Aug
Sanjoanense
1 : 1
Beira Mar
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Paredes

(Away)
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
30 Aug
Ermesinde
1 : 3
Paredes
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
Paredes
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