Sport Picks

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Sanjoanense vs Paredes

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Andrezinho
Assist: Talles Wander
46'
Sub
Yuk J. In: Pires J.
Out: Yuk J.
46'
Sub
Ferreira P. In: Dos Santos Guerra T. M.
Out: Ferreira P.

AI Match Summary

Sanjoanense in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sanjoanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sanjoanense
44%
Draws
20%
Paredes
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paredes lately — more wins on the board than Sanjoanense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 20%
Paredes Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanjoanense Paredes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 3 10
Draws 11 11
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:1
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
2:2
Feb 18, 2023 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanjoanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrezinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Paredes Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanjoanense 36 / 100
Paredes 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanjoanense Paredes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanjoanense found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Paredes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Sanjoanense stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sanjoanense VS Paredes
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanjoanense

(Home)
18 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 1
AD Fafe
15 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 3
FC Felgueiras
03 May
Sao Joao de Ver
2 : 1
Sanjoanense
26 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Paredes
19 Apr
Braga B
1 : 2
Sanjoanense
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Paredes

(Away)
22 Jul
AFS
2 : 4
Paredes
18 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 0
Paredes
03 May
Paredes
2 : 2
AD Marco 09
26 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Paredes
18 Apr
Paredes
0 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
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