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Santa Amalia vs Jaraiz

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Gomez J.
58' Event
Liberal M.
63' Event
Haida M.

AI Match Summary

Jaraiz in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaraiz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Santa Amalia
30%
Draws
31%
Jaraiz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Amalia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Santa Amalia haven't matched Jaraiz's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Santa Amalia a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 68%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Amalia Jaraiz
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 7 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Jaraiz
1:4
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Santa Amalia
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Santa Amalia
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Jaraiz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Amalia Compare

Top Goalscorer Barbosa P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Jaraiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Liberal M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Amalia 59 / 100
Jaraiz 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Amalia Jaraiz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Amalia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaraiz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Santa Amalia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Jaraiz lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Amalia VS Jaraiz
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Amalia

(Home)
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0
Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
03 May
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
Moralo
Page 1 of 6

Jaraiz

(Away)
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0
Jaraiz
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0
CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)