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Santa Amalia vs Moralo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Silva Reis R. W.
34' Event
Silva Reis R. W.

AI Match Summary

Moralo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moralo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Santa Amalia
35%
Draws
52%
Moralo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Amalia haven't matched Moralo's recent run of results.
  • Moralo are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 20%
Moralo Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Amalia Moralo
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 7 18
Draws 7 9
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.87 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.74 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Moralo
0:2
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Santa Amalia
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Santa Amalia
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Moralo
1:1
May 13, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Moralo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Amalia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva Reis R. W.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Amalia 28 / 100
Moralo 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Amalia Moralo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moralo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Santa Amalia scored in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Moralo conceded in 56% of 32 recent games.

Santa Amalia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Amalia VS Moralo
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Amalia

(Home)
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
03 May
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
Moralo
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
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Moralo

(Away)
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0
Moralo
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
23 May
Moralo
0 : 0
CD Azuaga
17 May
CD Azuaga
0 : 1
Moralo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)