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Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Diarrassouba S.
29' Event
Escandon E.
(Penalty)
70' Event

AI Match Summary

SP Villafranca in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored SP Villafranca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Santa Amalia
30%
Draws
35%
SP Villafranca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • SP Villafranca have won more games recently than Santa Amalia.
  • Win probability leans Santa Amalia's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 68%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Amalia SP Villafranca
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 16
Draws 7 5
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca
1:3
Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca
0:2
Dec 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Santa Amalia
1:2
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Santa Amalia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Amalia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarrassouba S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ivan V. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Amalia 50 / 100
SP Villafranca 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Amalia SP Villafranca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Amalia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santa Amalia scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: SP Villafranca conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Santa Amalia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Amalia VS SP Villafranca
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Amalia

(Home)
09 Oct
Santa Amalia
1 : 3
SP Villafranca
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Moralo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0
Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
Page 1 of 6

SP Villafranca

(Away)
09 Oct
Santa Amalia
1 : 3
SP Villafranca
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1
Villanovense
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
SP Villafranca
1 : 4
CD Azuaga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)