Sport Picks
Santa Catarina vs Marcilio Dias - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Santa Catarina 
Match Events
61'
61'
Henrique Rodrigues
70'
70'
Cristiano
78'
78'
Alex Goncalves
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marcilio Dias
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Marcilio Dias average 1.43 goals a game right now, well clear of Santa Catarina's 1.32.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Santa Catarina, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 16%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santa Catarina | Marcilio Dias |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.04 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina vs Marcilio Dias
2:1
Jan 15, 2026 Catarinense
Marcilio Dias vs Santa Catarina
0:1
Oct 25, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina vs Marcilio Dias
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Santa Catarina
3:2
Mar 4, 2025 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Marcilio Dias
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Santa Catarina Compare
Top Goalscorer Henrique Rodrigues
1 Goals Assists Leader Alex Goncalves
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Marcilio Dias Compare
Top Goalscorer Cristiano
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Santa Catarina 36 / 100
Marcilio Dias 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Santa Catarina Marcilio Dias
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marcilio Dias Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Santa Catarina found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Marcilio Dias has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Santa Catarina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Santa Catarina VS Marcilio Dias
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Santa Catarina
(Home) 20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2 Figueirense
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2 Santa Catarina
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1 Santa Catarina
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2 EC Sao Jose (PA)
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2 Figueirense
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2 EC Sao Jose (PA)
07 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 0 FC Cascavel
23 May
Santa Catarina
1 : 0 Sao Luiz
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Marcilio Dias
(Away) 09 Oct
Nacao
0 : 0 Marcilio Dias
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Nacao
0 : 0 Marcilio Dias
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0 Marcilio Dias
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercilio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 8 | Nacao | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6:12 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:6 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
