Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio de São Miguel

Santa Clara

2 - 0

Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

13'

24'

Sub

Paciencia G. In: Elias Manoel

Out: Paciencia G.

27'

Witiness J.

Own Goal

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Santa Clara in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Clara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Santa Clara

22%

Draws

18%

Nacional

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Santa Clara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Santa Clara have won more games recently than Nacional.
Model gives Santa Clara a 60% chance of winning this.
Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%

Santa Clara Clean Sheet 68%

Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Santa Clara	Nacional
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	9	6
Draws	7	7
Losses	12	15
Goals Scored	1.5	1.25
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Liga Portugal

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

2:0

Jan 11, 2026 Liga Portugal

Nacional vs Santa Clara

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 4 - 3

3:3

Mar 30, 2025 Liga Portugal

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Nov 4, 2024 Liga Portugal

Nacional vs Santa Clara

Possession: 45% - 54% Cards: 4 - 2

2:0

Mar 17, 2024 Liga Portugal 2

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Possession: 52% - 42% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Clara Compare

Top Goalscorer Elias Manoel

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Clara 68 / 100

Nacional 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Santa Clara Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Clara scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Santa Clara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Clara VS Nacional

1.5 Goals Scored 1.25

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66:18	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89:24	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74:25	80
4	Braga	34	16	11	7	64:36	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42:29	56
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47:38	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37:49	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47:64	42
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39:51	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54:57	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35:52	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35:57	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32:41	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37:45	34
15	Estrela da Amadora	34	6	12	16	38:56	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31:57	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27:55	28
18	AFS	34	3	12	19	27:67	21