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Santa Cruz de Natal vs Baraunas

Brazil Brazil

Potiguar 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Alisson Farias
11' Event
Alisson Farias
22' Event
Leo Gomes

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz de Natal in this Potiguar 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Cruz de Natal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Santa Cruz de Natal
6%
Draws
90%
Baraunas
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Baraunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Baraunas lately — more wins on the board than Santa Cruz de Natal.
  • Model gives Baraunas a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Santa Cruz de Natal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Santa Cruz de Natal Clean Sheet 10%
Baraunas Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz de Natal Baraunas
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 3
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2025 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Baraunas
4:2
Apr 3, 2024 Potiguar
Baraunas vs Santa Cruz de Natal
1:1
Mar 8, 2018 Potiguar
Baraunas vs Santa Cruz de Natal
1:2
Feb 5, 2018 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Baraunas
2:0
Apr 2, 2017 Potiguar
Baraunas vs Santa Cruz de Natal
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz de Natal Compare

Top Goalscorer Alisson Farias
4 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Baraunas Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Gomes
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jonathan Chula
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz de Natal 10 / 100
Baraunas 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz de Natal Baraunas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Santa Cruz de Natal found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Baraunas conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Santa Cruz de Natal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz de Natal VS Baraunas
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1ABC752013:117
2America RN751113:216
3Laguna RN734013:613
4Potiguar de Mossoró74039:712
5Santa Cruz de Natal721410:147
6Globo FC72145:117
7Baraunas71156:154
8CE Forca E Luz70254:172