Sport Picks
Santa Cruz MT vs Chapada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Chapada have shipped 1.05 goals a game lately, while Santa Cruz MT have conceded 1.1 and scored 1.14. Past meetings favor Chapada slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 30, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (0.75 xG vs 1.00) point toward Chapada. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Chapada carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Chapada's way, sitting at 50%.
- Chapada arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santa Cruz MT | Chapada |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 21 | 22 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chapada's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 22 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Santa Cruz MT found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (21 games).
Recent resilience: Santa Cruz MT stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Santa Cruz MT
(Home)Chapada
(Away)League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uniao Rondonopolis | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 13 |
| 2 | Chapada | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz MT | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 4 | Várzea Grande EC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 5 | Uirapuru | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | 2 |
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cuiaba | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Sorriso EC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Cacerense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:10 | 6 |
| 4 | Campo Novo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | 0 |
