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Santa Cruz MT vs Gremio Sorriso

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Matogrossense 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Santa Cruz MT
33%
Draws
27%
Gremio Sorriso
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Santa Cruz MT

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio Sorriso have won more games recently than Santa Cruz MT.
  • Santa Cruz MT are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Matogrossense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Sorriso Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz MT Gremio Sorriso
Matches Played 16 31
Wins 5 7
Draws 5 10
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Matogrossense 2
Santa Cruz MT vs Gremio Sorriso
0:0
May 4, 2024 Matogrossense 2
Gremio Sorriso vs Santa Cruz MT
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz MT 40 / 100
Gremio Sorriso 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz MT Gremio Sorriso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Sorriso let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Santa Cruz MT has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gremio Sorriso lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz MT VS Gremio Sorriso
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sinop FC43108:210
2Sorriso EC421112:37
3Santa Cruz MT41303:16
4Gremio Sorriso41124:44
5Campo Novo40041:180
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Uirapuru431015:410
2Acao42208:68
3Cacerense41125:44
4Paulistano FC40221:62
5Atletico MT40223:122