Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso Estadio de Piedades
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz play Dep. Upala in the Liga de Ascenso. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santa Cruz averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Dep. Upala averaged 1.12 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Santa Cruz won 2, Dep. Upala won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Santa Cruz and 0.81 for Dep. Upala. This points to a Santa Cruz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Santa Cruz
32%
Draws
22%
Dep. Upala
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz picked up more points recently compared to Dep. Upala.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 26%
Dep. Upala Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Dep. Upala
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 6 2
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.08 1.12
Goals Conceded 1.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Dep. Upala vs Santa Cruz
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala
3:3
Nov 2, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala
1:0
Sep 17, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Dep. Upala vs Santa Cruz
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rosales J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Dep. Upala Compare

Top Goalscorer Ballesteros P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Recio D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 47 / 100
Dep. Upala 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Dep. Upala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santa Cruz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santa Cruz attacking → ← attacking Dep. Upala

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz scored in 62% of their last 26 games.

Dep. Upala let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Santa Cruz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dep. Upala lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 15
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1ADR Jicaral1493225:1230
2Inter San Carlos1484225:1428
3Quepos Cambute1491430:2128
4Santa Cruz1445519:1717
5Grecia1445516:1817
6AD Sarchi1445519:2317
7Cofutpa1424814:2710
8Dep. Upala1405915:315
9Municipal Turrialba00000:00
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Escorpiones14102233:1032
2CS Uruguay1472525:2023
3Pitbulls1464420:1622
4Consultants Desamparados1454519:1919
5Cariari Pococi1436519:2315
6Aserri1428415:2814
7Santa Ana1333719:2812
8Carmelita1325610:1611
9Limon Black Star00000:00