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Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

58'
82' Event
Rosales A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 game between Santa Cruz and Dep. Upala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Santa Cruz
15%
Draws
0%
Dep. Upala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Santa Cruz a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 20%
Dep. Upala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Dep. Upala
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 7 2
Draws 7 9
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.21 1.12
Goals Conceded 1.64 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Dep. Upala vs Santa Cruz
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala
3:3
Nov 2, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Cruz vs Dep. Upala
1:0
Sep 17, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Dep. Upala vs Santa Cruz
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosales A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Dep. Upala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 58 / 100
Dep. Upala 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Dep. Upala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Upala has conceded goals in 88% of their last 26 outings.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Away concern: Dep. Upala has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Santa Cruz found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz VS Dep. Upala
1 Goals Scored 0.6
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 80%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz

(Home)
27 Sept
Cofutpa
3 : 1
Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
0 : 2
Quepos FC
13 Sept
Santa Cruz
4 : 0
AD Sarchi
30 Aug
Santa Cruz
1 : 2
AD Rosario
23 Aug
ADR Jicaral
4 : 1
Santa Cruz
Page 1 of 6

Dep. Upala

(Away)
12 Apr
Dep. Upala
0 : 3
ADR Jicaral
29 Mar
Dep. Upala
1 : 2
Santa Cruz
21 Mar
AD Sarchi
3 : 1
Dep. Upala
15 Mar
Dep. Upala
1 : 2
Quepos FC
12 Mar
Inter San Carlos
1 : 0
Dep. Upala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter San Carlos 14 9 3 2 22:12 30
2 ADR Jicaral 14 7 5 2 23:11 26
3 Quepos FC 14 5 5 4 18:17 20
4 Cofutpa 14 5 3 6 23:24 18
5 AD Sarchi 14 4 6 4 15:17 18
6 Dep. Upala 14 4 4 6 22:23 16
7 Santa Cruz 14 3 4 7 10:20 13
8 Grecia 14 3 2 9 22:31 11
9 Municipal Turrialba 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Escorpiones 14 9 4 1 31:18 31
2 FC Moravia 14 7 4 3 25:18 25
3 Cariari Pococi 14 4 6 4 25:18 18
4 Carmelita 14 4 6 4 14:14 18
5 Santa Ana 14 4 6 4 16:17 18
6 CS Uruguay 14 3 5 6 15:24 14
7 Pitbulls 14 2 6 6 10:15 12
8 Aserri 14 3 3 8 11:23 12
9 Limon Black Star 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Apertura - Play Offs)