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Santa Cruz vs Petrolina

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2025 Estádio José do Rego Maciel
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz play Petrolina in the Pernambucano 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santa Cruz averaged 1.15 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Petrolina averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Santa Cruz won 3, Petrolina won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 16, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Santa Cruz and 1.00 for Petrolina. This points to a Santa Cruz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Santa Cruz
24%
Draws
30%
Petrolina
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz picked up more points recently compared to Petrolina.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 23%
Petrolina Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Petrolina
Matches Played 39 39
Wins 17 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.15 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.28

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 16, 2025 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Petrolina
2:0
Feb 6, 2024 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Santa Cruz
1:2
Apr 4, 2023 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Santa Cruz
2:1
Feb 1, 2023 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Santa Cruz
0:0
Jan 18, 2020 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Petrolina
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiaguinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Petrolina Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 46 / 100
Petrolina 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Petrolina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santa Cruz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santa Cruz attacking → ← attacking Petrolina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz scored in 59% of their last 39 games.

Petrolina let in goals in 79% of their last 39 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Santa Cruz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Petrolina lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 44
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Santa Cruz962114:420
2Maguary952213:1017
3Nautico951315:916
4Sport Recife943217:815
5Decisao934211:1213
6Retro93338:1012
7Jaguar932410:1611
8Central SC92348:99
9Afogados da Ingazeira90545:135
10Petrolina90364:143