Sport Picks
Santa Cruz vs SER Caxias do Sul - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Serie C Estádio José do Rego Maciel, Recife 
Match Events
13'
13'
Breno Santos
42'
42'
Eron
45'
45'
William Alves
AI Match Summary
Santa Cruz in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Cruz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Cruz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Santa Cruz lately — more wins on the board than SER Caxias do Sul.
- Model gives Santa Cruz a 51% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Santa Cruz here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santa Cruz | SER Caxias do Sul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:0
Jul 8, 2005 Serie B
Santa Cruz vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Jul 23, 2004 Serie B
SER Caxias do Sul vs Santa Cruz
1:0
Sep 13, 2003 Serie B
Santa Cruz vs SER Caxias do Sul
3:1
Oct 19, 2002 Serie B
Santa Cruz vs SER Caxias do Sul
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Santa Cruz Compare
Top Goalscorer Eron
1 Goals Assists Leader Matheus Vinicius
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
SER Caxias do Sul Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Santa Cruz 77 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Santa Cruz SER Caxias do Sul
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santa Cruz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Santa Cruz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Santa Cruz's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Defensive concern: SER Caxias do Sul conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Santa Cruz VS SER Caxias do Sul
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Santa Cruz
(Home) 03 Oct
Santa Cruz
1 : 1 Maringa FC
26 Sept
Floresta EC
1 : 1 Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0 Floresta EC
12 Sept
Maringa FC
0 : 1 Santa Cruz
06 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0 Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Santa Cruz
1 : 1 Maringa FC
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0 Floresta EC
06 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0 Botafogo PB
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0 SER Caxias do Sul
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1 Maranhao
Page 1 of 3
SER Caxias do Sul
(Away) 29 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0 Internacional de Limeira
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0 SER Caxias do Sul
16 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2 Figueirense
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 SER Caxias do Sul
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2 Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0 SER Caxias do Sul
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2 SER Caxias do Sul
04 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 1 SER Caxias do Sul
13 Jun
Guarani
2 : 1 SER Caxias do Sul
23 May
Maranhao
0 : 0 SER Caxias do Sul
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28:19 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28:22 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviaria | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringa FC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32:30 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta EC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22:20 | 30 |
| 6 | Internacional de Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22:20 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu PA | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26:27 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20:15 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27:24 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 34:24 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 19:22 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhao | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 19:18 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21:23 | 26 |
| 14 | SER Caxias do Sul | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17:16 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18:21 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 13:25 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21:21 | 21 |
| 18 | Anapolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 17:22 | 19 |
| 19 | Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14:27 | 17 |
| 20 | Confianca | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11:20 | 13 |
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)
