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Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio El Campín, Bogotá
Santa Fe Logo

Santa Fe

2 - 0
FT
Union Magdalena Logo

Union Magdalena

Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Fagundez F.
63' Event
Palacios L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Santa Fe
35%
Draws
27%
Union Magdalena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Fe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Santa Fe have won more games recently than Union Magdalena.
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Santa Fe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Fe, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Santa Fe Clean Sheet 20%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Fe Union Magdalena
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Copa Colombia
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
1:1
Aug 6, 2026 Copa Colombia
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Sep 14, 2025 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Primera A
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
0:1
Aug 19, 2023 Primera A
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Fe Compare

Top Goalscorer Fagundez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palacios L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Union Magdalena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Fe 31 / 100
Union Magdalena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Fe Union Magdalena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Fe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Fe scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Union Magdalena conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Santa Fe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Fe VS Union Magdalena
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Fe

(Home)
11 Oct
Santa Fe
3 : 2
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
06 Oct
Ind. Medellin
0 : 1
Santa Fe
29 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 2
Santa Fe
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
23 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 1
Dep. Cali
Page 1 of 6

Union Magdalena

(Away)
11 Oct
Union Magdalena
2 : 2
Leones
07 Oct
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 1
Union Magdalena
03 Oct
Real Santander
1 : 3
Union Magdalena
29 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Cartagena
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Atl. Nacional 4
Tigres Futbol Club 0
Junior 5
Barranquilla 6
Dep. Pasto 3
Bogota 1
America De Cali 3
Cartagena 2
Once Caldas 6
Envigado 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Quindio 4
Santa Fe 3
Union Magdalena 1
Inter Bogotá 3
Inter Palmira 1