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Santa Lucia vs Antigua - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Mena J.
26'
Perez Y. Y.
35'
Ramirez D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2022/2023 game between Santa Lucia and Antigua finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Santa Lucia
20%
Draws
40%
Antigua
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Antigua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Santa Lucia are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Santa Lucia Clean Sheet 19%
Antigua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Lucia Antigua
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 6 19
Draws 6 9
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Antigua
1:1
Feb 15, 2023 Liga Nacional
Antigua vs Santa Lucia
1:1
Oct 9, 2022 Liga Nacional
Antigua vs Santa Lucia
3:2
Aug 7, 2022 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Antigua
0:3
Apr 7, 2022 Liga Nacional
Antigua vs Santa Lucia
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Lucia Compare

Top Goalscorer Macal E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Antigua Compare

Top Goalscorer Ardon J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Lucia 42 / 100
Antigua 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Lucia Antigua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Antigua has conceded goals in 70% of their last 40 outings.

Antigua's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Santa Lucia scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Antigua
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Lucia

(Home)
07 May
Santa Lucia
0 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
30 Apr
Iztapa
1 : 0
Santa Lucia
26 Apr
Santa Lucia
0 : 4
Municipal
23 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
1 : 0
Santa Lucia
19 Apr
Santa Lucia
2 : 1
Guastatoya
Page 1 of 6

Antigua

(Away)
09 Oct
Antigua
1 : 1
Municipal
03 Oct
Marquense
2 : 1
Antigua
27 Sept
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 1
Antigua
24 Sept
Xelaju
4 : 0
Antigua
15 Sept
Antigua
3 : 2
Suchitepequez
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comunicaciones 22 12 9 1 37:16 45
2 Municipal 22 13 4 5 44:21 43
3 Xelaju 22 12 7 3 31:9 43
4 Xinabajul 22 8 7 7 27:29 31
5 Guastatoya 22 7 8 7 28:22 29
6 Deportivo Mixco 22 7 8 7 23:24 29
7 Antigua 22 8 5 9 33:37 29
8 Deportivo Achuapa 22 7 5 10 24:44 26
9 Coban Imperial 22 6 7 9 16:17 25
10 Iztapa 22 5 5 12 30:49 20
11 Malacateco 22 4 7 11 24:33 19
12 Santa Lucia 22 5 4 13 14:30 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2022/2023 (Clausura - Play Offs)