Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Lucia vs Iztapa

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Herrera R.
12' Event
Guerra C.
23'
Mira E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2022/2023 game between Santa Lucia and Iztapa finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Iztapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Santa Lucia
17%
Draws
13%
Iztapa
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santa Lucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Iztapa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Santa Lucia are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santa Lucia Clean Sheet 68%
Iztapa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Lucia Iztapa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 18 16
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Liga Nacional
Iztapa vs Santa Lucia
1:0
Mar 1, 2023 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
1:2
Oct 2, 2022 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
2:3
Jul 31, 2022 Liga Nacional
Iztapa vs Santa Lucia
1:1
May 8, 2022 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Lucia Compare

Top Goalscorer Herrera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Iztapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerra C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dieguez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Lucia 77 / 100
Iztapa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Lucia Iztapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iztapa let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Iztapa registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Santa Lucia found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Santa Lucia VS Iztapa
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Lucia

(Home)
07 May
Santa Lucia
0 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
30 Apr
Iztapa
1 : 0
Santa Lucia
26 Apr
Santa Lucia
0 : 4
Municipal
23 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
1 : 0
Santa Lucia
19 Apr
Santa Lucia
2 : 1
Guastatoya
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Iztapa

(Away)
07 May
Deportivo Achuapa
5 : 3
Iztapa
03 May
Municipal
4 : 0
Iztapa
30 Apr
Iztapa
1 : 0
Santa Lucia
23 Apr
Guastatoya
1 : 1
Iztapa
19 Apr
Iztapa
1 : 5
Comunicaciones
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Comunicaciones22129137:1645
2Municipal22134544:2143
3Xelaju22127331:943
4Xinabajul2287727:2931
5Guastatoya2278728:2229
6Deportivo Mixco2278723:2429
7Antigua2285933:3729
8Deportivo Achuapa22751024:4426
9Coban Imperial2267916:1725
10Iztapa22551230:4920
11Malacateco22471124:3319
12Santa Lucia22541314:3019
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2022/2023 (Clausura - Play Offs)