Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Maria vs Brasiliense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Tobinha
36' Event
Watthimen
(Penalty)
50' Event
Tarta

AI Match Summary

Brasiliense in this Brasiliense 2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Brasiliense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Santa Maria
20%
Draws
80%
Brasiliense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brasiliense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Santa Maria haven't matched Brasiliense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Brasiliense a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Brasiliense have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 21%
Brasiliense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Maria Brasiliense
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 6 14
Draws 4 12
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.26
Goals Conceded 2.23 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Brasiliense
0:1
Mar 11, 2023 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Brasiliense
1:2
Jan 30, 2022 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Santa Maria
2:1
Apr 18, 2021 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Brasiliense
0:4
Jan 26, 2019 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Santa Maria
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Maria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Brasiliense Compare

Top Goalscorer Tobinha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tarta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Maria 10 / 100
Brasiliense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Maria Brasiliense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brasiliense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Santa Maria scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Brasiliense conceded in 53% of 34 recent games.

Away concern: Brasiliense has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Brasiliense
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Maria

(Home)
10 Mar
Capital
7 : 1
Santa Maria
03 Mar
Santa Maria
0 : 4
Planaltina
25 Feb
Real Brasilia
1 : 0
Santa Maria
18 Feb
Santa Maria
0 : 5
Gama
08 Feb
Paranoa
1 : 0
Santa Maria
Page 1 of 6

Brasiliense

(Away)
27 Jun
Goiatuba EC
1 : 0
Brasiliense
21 Jun
Brasiliense
0 : 0
Goiatuba EC
07 Jun
Primavera AC
1 : 2
Brasiliense
31 May
Brasiliense
1 : 1
Luverdense
24 May
Brasiliense
1 : 0
Inhumas
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Brasilia 9 5 3 1 13:6 18
2 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 18:9 15
3 Capital 9 4 3 2 11:8 15
4 Paranoa 9 4 3 2 14:15 15
5 Gama 9 4 2 3 8:6 14
6 Ceilandia 9 4 2 3 12:11 14
7 Samambaia 9 4 1 4 16:16 13
8 Santa Maria 9 2 1 6 9:14 7
9 Taguatinga 9 2 1 6 12:19 7
10 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 2 1 6 9:18 7
Promotion - Brasiliense 2023 (Play Offs)