Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santarem vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem
Santarem Logo

Santarem

3 - 1
FT
Mafra Logo

Mafra

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Simoes J.
Assist: Vinhas D.
26'
Alves K.
35' Event
Iheanacho S.
Assist: Alves K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Santarem and Mafra finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santarem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Santarem
30%
Draws
52%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Santarem haven't matched Mafra's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mafra's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Santarem Clean Sheet 18%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarem Mafra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 11 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.9 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Santarem
2:1
Mar 4, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Mafra
3:1
Jan 16, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Santarem
0:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga 3
Santarem vs Mafra
1:2
Oct 2, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Santarem vs Mafra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Simoes J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Iheanacho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarem 20 / 100
Mafra 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarem Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mafra has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Santarem went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santarem VS Mafra
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarem

(Home)
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
10 May
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Santarem
02 May
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1
Santarem
Page 1 of 6

Mafra

(Away)
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
15 Jul
Fredericia
3 : 2
Mafra
11 Jul
Esbjerg
0 : 2
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)