Sport Picks

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Santarem vs Oliveirense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Isnaba G.
40'
Nobrega J.
42'
Kiko Felix

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Santarem
35%
Draws
47%
Oliveirense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Oliveirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Santarem haven't matched Oliveirense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Oliveirense's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Santarem Clean Sheet 22%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarem Oliveirense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 11 7
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.86 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Oliveirense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Oliveirense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarem 16 / 100
Oliveirense 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarem Oliveirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Oliveirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santarem scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Oliveirense let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Santarem remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santarem VS Oliveirense
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarem

(Home)
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

Oliveirense

(Away)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
08 Aug
Oliveirense
0 : 0
Louletano
17 May
Oliveirense
1 : 5
FC Felgueiras
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Varzim 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
2 Paredes 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
3 AD Marco 09 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
4 AD Fafe 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
6 SC Vianense 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
7 Leca 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
8 Trofense 3 1 0 2 1:3 3
9 Sao Joao de Ver 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
10 Pacos Ferreira 3 0 0 3 2:7 0
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Atletico CP 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 Oliveirense 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
4 Lusitano GC 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
5 Louletano 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
6 Covilha 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
7 Mafra 3 1 1 1 7:3 4
8 Caldas SC 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
9 Vitoria Sernache 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
10 Santarem 3 0 1 2 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)