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Santarem vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem
Santarem Logo

Santarem

0 - 1
FT
Trofense Logo

Trofense

Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Rodeia M.
46'
Sub
Teixeira G. In: Ayiah E.
Out: Teixeira G.
46'
Sub
Ventura B. In: Medalli N.
Out: Ventura B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Trofense in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Trofense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Santarem
35%
Draws
16%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santarem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Santarem lately — more wins on the board than Trofense.
  • Win probability leans Santarem's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Santarem Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarem Trofense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 5
Draws 11 10
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.93 0.66
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Trofense
0:1
Feb 14, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Santarem
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarem 68 / 100
Trofense 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarem Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santarem Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trofense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Santarem scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Santarem remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santarem VS Trofense
0.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarem

(Home)
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
10 May
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Santarem
Page 1 of 6

Trofense

(Away)
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)